Somalia Seen Quagmire for Ethiopians

[Break The Cross]

Somalia Seen Quagmire for Ethiopians
Publication time: 27 December 2006, 10:02
http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2006/12/27/6982.shtml


Somalia could be a quagmire for Ethiopian troops attacking the de facto ruling Islamic Courts which has vowed a years-long guerrilla war against the military juggernaut of the invaders, analysts believe.

"The Ethiopians could get bogged down into a hopeless, long-term guerrilla campaign with enormous supply lines," David Shinn, the former US ambassador to Ethiopia, told The Los Angeles Times on Tuesday, December 2006.

Shinn warned a longer Ethiopian offensive in Somalia means a complete rout for Addis Ababa.

"I don't see how they 'defeat' the Islamists in the long run."

A day after Ethiopian warplanes bombarded airports in Mogadishu and another outside the capital, the Islamic Courts of Somalia (SICS) fighters retreated Tuesday from several frontline positions after withering attacks.

The SICS said retreat from Dinsoor and Burhakaba, south and east of the Somali government base of Baidoa, is a military tactic to prepare for a long-term hit-and-run war against Ethiopia, vastly superior in conventional military terms.

"We are ready to start long-lasting war with Ethiopia," Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the head of the SICS Executive Committee, told a press conference.

"We are in a new stage of resistance. The enemy has started using air forces. Since we don't have heavy weapons to defend ourselves in this full-scale attack by the Meles forces, we have decided to change our tactics," he added, referring to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

"I don't understand what Ethiopia's objective is," said Shinn, a political science professor at George Washington University.

"I can't imagine their objective is to occupy and hold Somalia. It was a very limited victory."

John Prendergast, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, believes a longer offensive could plague Ethiopia, a US ally, with the same challenges facing American forces in Iraq.

"Hasn't anyone heard of Iraq?" he asked in an interview with the Washington Post, referring to non-stop resistance attacks that claimed the lives of up to 3,000 US soldiers since the invasion in April 2003.

"A military strategy of 'countering terrorism' never works and will likely blow up in their faces."

Panic-stricken people in Mogadishu voiced fear the capital may turn into a Baghdad-like hot zone of deadly urban warfare.

"I used to watch the TV, there are killings and explosions in Baghdad everyday," former military officer Yonis Gure told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

"I am afraid our city could be like that if foreign forces take it."

Despite braving 15 years of lawlessness, residents were visibly shocked after Ethiopian warplanes swept low and struck Mogadishu's main airport Monday.

"I thought I was not in Somalia" when the bombs came down, said Dahir Guled Farah, a trader at Mogadishu Bakara market, a once-teeming arms bazaar cleaned dry after the SICS captured the capital in June.

Heavy fighting began on December 20 after the expiry of an ultimatum by the SICS for Ethiopian troops to leave the country, wracked by conflict since the 1991 ouster of president Mohamed Siad Barre.

Thousands of civilians have been displaced and seven straight days of artillery duels have compounded the misery of Somalis already affected by recent flooding.

"Hasn't anyone heard of Iraq?" said Prendergast.

Pundits insist it is better for the US to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict, blasting Washington's awkward policy in the region.

"If the US joined a serious diplomatic effort aimed at finding a compromise between Ethiopia and the Courts, negotiations could have had a much better chance," Prendergast told the Post.

"Once the serious punching has started, it's going to be increasingly difficult to stop this brawl," he opined.

Premier Zenawi has said that Washington was backing his country's war against the SICS.

Experts said he convinced Washington that the SICS could turn Somalia into a haven for Al-Qaeda operatives and terrorists.

The Ethiopian opposition say Zenawi has shrewdly played up the terrorism card to win US support.

The SICS had distanced itself from comments made by Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.

In a July audiotape, Bin Laden warned "countries of the world against responding to America and sending international forces to Somalia."

US officials have called on Somali groups to end their fighting, but they did not call for an Ethiopian withdrawal.

"Ethiopia has genuine security concerns," one US official told the Los Angeles Times, adding that State Department officials have urged Addis Ababa to use "maximum restraint."

Somalia has historically been of strategic importance to the US because of its proximity to the Middle East and Red Sea shipping lanes.


But US policy there has been sharply criticized over the years.

A US military intervention in 1993 ended in a humiliating hastily evacuation after the killing of 18 troops.

The US-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), who were booted of power by the SICS after years of rampage, is re-gaining a foothold in the war-torn country.

"Ethiopian troops are handing over some cities they have captured to the warlords," political analyst Mohammad Tiej told IslamOnline.net Tuesday.

He said Ethiopian troops handed Monday the governorate of Hiran to warlord and former governor Yusuf Dabjid.

He expected more cities to be given back by the Ethiopians to other warlords, including the strategic city of Johar.

Somalia, home to about 10 million people, was carved up among rival warlords after the ouster of former president Mohamed Siad Siad Barre in 1991.

The alliance was ousted in July but continues to support the Ethiopian-backed interim government.

US government officials and experts have said that secret funding by Washington's CIA for the warlord alliance has backfired, empowering the same groups the Bush administration has sought to marginalize.

Source: IslamOnline

[Abu Khalid 2]

Allah has a plan for somalia just like Alah has a plan Iraq, wa Afghanistan, wa Cheechaan, wa Fii Kulli Makaan. Because Allah SWT says that the kufaar plan but that he also plans.

In Somalia, the Islamic Courts took on a power their size, actually it was stronger than them for it was warlords who controlled the whole country for a good 16 years. Now it was all that experience against a couple hundred of mujahideen, and with US backing and they defeated them. Shame on the losers, they went and sought more power by joining the murtadeen government that was self elected in Somalia. Actually that government is kufr and many of its members have apostasised from the deen of Muhammad SAW. Even that was not enough so they went to ask help from the ethiopian saliibiyiin, who were more than happy to help prevent Islam from springing up right in their doorstep. And the whole world watched as a whole country took on only the Islamic Courts. The brothers, masha-Allah had infantry close to the Ethiopian Salibiyiin army, 100,000 compared to 125,000 of the kufaar, but not the arsenal to fight them. And ven then they still slayed the kufaar badly, if anyone saw the pictures on Al Jazeera. Finally, the kufaar had no option but to use their planes. All the while the world watched.

Where are those countries that call themselves Muslim. We know none exists, except for the Islamic State of Iraq at the moment but where are they. fa Wallahi all these people have apostasised from the deen of Muhammad SAW. And he who thinks such a matter harsh, we did not give the verdict but Allah SWT gave the verdict and their are over 20 ayahs confirming their murtadness. Shaykh Usama also talked about this.

Has anyone seen what is happening in Iraq. has anyone heard the cry of sister fatima, where she says "Anaa Ukhtukum faatima." Where they gang raped our sisters, refused to give them their clothes, refused them to pray, and some of them eventually committed suicide, one sister by banging he head continously on a wall till she died. This is without going to even the other details of what they do to families in Iraq. la Ilaaha Illah. La Ilaaha Illallah. La Ilaaha Ilallah. And these other stupid sisters raise their flags in support of them, while this is what they do to their other sisters elsewhere in the world. Where are the brothers? Where are the brothers who are supposed to return this deen? Where are the Mujaahideen? They destroyed our masaajids, kill families. As one US soldier described himself, they remove the whole family out first. They ask the father some questions, some he has no clue about. So when he does not answer, they beat him and beat him and beat him. Then they fondle his wife right in front of him, and his kids. Then when he still cannot answer their questions, they shoot his kids starting from the youngest one and on and on up to his wife and then him. Where are the Muslims? Rasoolullah SAW said, "Anyone who deserts a muslim when his sanctity will be violated and his dignity taken away, Allah shall desert him at a time when he most needs Him."

Fawallahi we shall fight the kufaar and we shall not rest until they feel themselves subdued as Allah SWT ordered us. Ya Allah. Hasn't anyone read the Quran? I can't even describe the number of ayahs I have read. I can't put them all down here, they're far too many. But I can tell you one thing, if anyone of you were to read the Qur'an and the Qur'an alone, it would suffice him entirely. Ya'ni I'm referring to the way the Ummah has thrown away the Qur'an, so Allah threw them aside too and Fawallhi, Allah shall not remember them until they remember Him SWT. The beautiful verses of Suuratul Anfal and Suuratul Taubah.

But I guarantee you one thing, we shall fight the kufaar, and we shall continue till the Khilaafah is established and haqq revails on earth. the Jihad in Somalia has now turned to guerilla like all the other jihads in the world, and even so, the better, as teh above ayah describes, and we shall alwys continue, till yawmul qiyaamah, and till the kilaafah is established.

I shall remeber the words of Shiikh Usaama as I go into this war as well, "Wa Qad Saruha Bush Bilisaanihi, Crusade, hardul saliibiyyah. Wal Mathluum minal Ummah, An Tuwahhadu Juhuudahaa fii haadihi hamdal saliibiyyah. Fa suuratil 'aalam yawm ilal qismayn wa qad asaaba bush 'inda ma qaal "imma ma'anaa wa imma ma'al irhab" ay imma ma'al saliibiyyah wa imma ma'al Islam. Bush Surratuhul Yawm Huwa Fii Awwali Taabuur. Ya'ni yahmilu saliibul Daqmil kaabiir wa yasiir. Wa ushidu biashadu Billahil 'Adiim, "Anna Kulla man yasiir qalfa bush fii qittatihii huwa qadda an yartadda' Millata Muhammad Sallahu 'Alayhi Wassallam. Wa haadaal Hukum Huwa Min Awdahil Ahkaami Fii Kitaabillahi wa Fii Sunnati Rasuulillahi Sallahu 'Alayhi Wasallam.

Ya Allah, Allahumma Ya Mlahul 'Izzatu wal janaa', yaa mallahul qudratu wal Kamaa, yaa Malhuwal Kabiirul Muta'aa, Nas'alukkallahuma A 'izzan wa tamkiinaa, wa Nasran Lil Mujaahiidniina fii sabiiliik, wa Nasran lil Mujaahidiina Fil 'Iraaq, wa Fil Afganistan, Wa fii pakistan, wa fissuumaal, wa fichiichaan, wa fii kulli makaan. Allahuma 'Alayka Bi A'daa'ihim, Allahuma 'Alayka Bi A'daa'ihim, Allahuma 'Alayka Bi A'daa'ihim, Allahuma Farriq Jam'ahum, Wa Shathith shamlahum, wa shathith shamlahum, Allahuma shathith shamlahum, wa aw'if shawkathahum, waqlifa mu'da fii quluubihim.

Allahumma Kullahum, Wa ma'ahum, Allahummansurhum, Wa Qawwihim, Allahumma Sathiith Ra'yahum, Wa fawif Silaamahum, Wajma' kalimatahum, Wa Aslih Allahumma Quluubuhum, Allahumma, Allahuma Taqqabal Du'aa'anaa. Ameen ya Rabbil 'Aalamiin.

[defenderofbusharraf]

ameen. ameen, ya rabbil alameen

it has been very very painful to watch news broadcasts from somalia and the attacks by christian ethiopia. even more so cuz its not somethin unexpected. its like u could almost see in slow motion what was going to happen, ethiopian troops and airforce getting involved and smashing islamic courts to bits, and no so called islamic state to help. its like muslims r just sitting ducks for a battering. very very sad. but this is the reality we r living in....

i mean, look at a poor country like ethiopia, we muslims cannot even defend ourselves against the weakest of the weak kuffar nations? i mean ethiopia? those who do not even have enough food to feed themselves? we still getting battered by them? wallahi this is too painful............and only across the water u have saudi arabia, with their 100 latest F15 fighter jets, whats the point of having all this crap if u cannot use it?...........ok im not so naive as to think that saudia can just say to somalia, "here have 4 or 5 jets to fight ehiopians"....i do know its not as simple as that, but still,, its just a reflection of how distorted the ummah has become.

and the jews smashing palestine to bits, killing schoolchildren in gaza, and only 3 miles away across the border, saudi princes racing camels in the desert......or kashmir, hindu animal worshipping army killing muslims daily yet only 10 miles away, pakistan army holding international Polo events and horseracing.....sickening

i am not a fan of all this takfeer business, throwing around the label of kufr so easily on anyone, but wallah, these rulers r gonna have some explaining to do on the judgement day to Allah swt.....well we all do, but even moreso for these rulers, due to them bein people in authority of the muslims.....

[Logic lover]

The Mujahideen have apparently announced the withdrawl from the capital which they were holding for a number of months enforcing the Sharia.

InshaAllah, Jihad will go on with a different tactic like in Afghanistan and Iraq.

[Break The Cross]

Yes they withdrew from Mogadishu and all the rest of the places because Allah permitted the Muslims to do so for strategic purposes. The reason they withdrew is because they didnt want Mogadishu or any other major city to be bombarded by the kuffar harbis since the peoples and the cities have already suffered enough past 16-19 years of war. These are similar tactics that the rest of the Mujahideen used all over the world. Everything is under control InshAllah and now the guerilla war will start InshAllah :cool: "...kill the Mushrikun wherever you find them, and capture them and besiege them, and prepare for them each and every ambush..."

[morbius]

Ethiopia fears that if so called Muslim courts were to grow stronger in Somalia that would intensify terrorist attacks against the country. As much as I have understanding for such fears as well as sympathy for the orthodox Christians of Ethiopia, I can not condone this military action. Government of Ethiopia should have shown maximum restrain when dealing with this problem instead of marching in into Somalia. Last thing people in Africa need is more war.
Unfortunately, I don’t know enough of what’s going on in Somalia to offer a valid opinion.

[gag order]

you try to sound fair but you always have a snide remark handy to slip in on the sly.

"Ethiopia fears that if so called Muslim courts were to grow stronger in Somalia that would intensify terrorist attacks against the country."

these 'fears' are unfounded. the union of islamic courts are not 'so called' they are bonafide courts of law and not the terrorist threat that you imply.

their jurisdiction is somalia and their stated aim is to end the rule of the warlords which the washington backed regime has failed to control (but now depends upon for its survival).

in the absence of a functioning government the union of islamic courts has brought law and order in places that the government had already abandoned to the warlords.

therefore the somalian regime has no right to oppose a civil and legal union doing the job that the government was supposed to do. nor are they remotely justified by involving a foreign power to limit the success of law enforcement in its own country.

[morbius]

these 'fears' are unfounded.
I don’t know. There were open threats made by Somali Muslim militants. Ethiopia’s government probably thought “Let’s hit them now when we are stronger, better than wait until they grow strong”. Strategically, this sounds like a good approach, but it’s not. From the experience in my country I know that violence must always be the last option when it comes to religious or ethnic conflicts, because for each militant extremist you kill, ten moderates become extremists. Spilled blood keeps calling for more blood to be spilled.

This is unfortunately known and exploited by some Muslim militant groups, such as Hezbollah. By attacking Israel, they are provoking Israeli response, which is almost always brutal and without any respect for the civilian lives. It breeds more hatred for Israel and therefore more support for the Hezbollah. Hezbollah doesn’t really care about suffering it’s causing to the ordinary Muslims, it only cares about its Jihad.

the union of islamic courts are not 'so called' they are bonafide courts of law and not the terrorist threat that you imply.
Even if they really are legitimate courts, we shouldn’t forget that judicial system is only one of the three pillars of government. Somalia desperately needs a stable legitimate democratic government that would bring order to the country. Instead, what they have is a bunch of warlords, each a despot in his own domain. And this foreign intervention will certainly do nothing to help, but only plant seeds of greater religious intolerance in the region.